However, Trump’s political power is about to crash onto the rocks of electoral math. That resolves the federal charges - the greatest threats - and Trump likely believes he or some other Republican president could likely shut down the remaining prosecutions. The prison vaccine is Trump winning the presidency, or another GOP candidate winning and pardoning him. There are two: 1) He retakes the White House, or 2) he (see above) reaches a plea deal. The most favorable math still lands him in prison. The math is still ugly: 0.8 ⁴ = 0.41 which means Trump has only a 41% chance of escaping prison, even when given remarkably favorable, exceptional, odds. Still, let’s improve his odds of exoneration from 3 in 10 to 8 in 10 - only a 20% chance in each case that he’s convicted and sent to prison. But the numbers remain stacked against Trump. The election interference charges are complex and based on novel or rarely tested legal theories - there just isn’t a lot of precedent for the events of January 6. As heavy as the federal documents case looks on paper, trying it will be a challenge - just working out the logistics of handling sensitive government secrets in the context of a public trial could take months of litigation and appeals. The New York case is generally regarded as weak, and while the Manhattan DA’s office is well resourced, it’s not the DOJ. Also, prosecuting each case presents obstacles. In addition, there is a non-zero probability any jury will have a Trumper who refuses to convict. He has unlimited resources and can deploy the full apparatus of a billionaire’s legal defense. OK, but Trump is not a typical defendant, and no case against him will be straightforward. A 30% chance of prevailing, four times in a row, is just under 1%. Generally, defendants have a 3 in 10 chance of escaping an indictment without prison. It’s not any one case that cements Trump’s fate, but the compounding risk of several (indictments). And the documents case against the former president is notable for the weight of the evidence, including audio of him sharing military secrets he admits he hadn’t declassified, the sensitivity of the papers, and his blatant obstruction - offenses the DOJ and courts take very seriously. In cases for mishandling national security documents specifically, the DOJ regularly obtains multiyear prison sentences. Of those convicted by the feds, 74% received prison time. State and local prosecutors convict at high rates as well - the Atlanta office expected to indict Trump boasts a 90% conviction rate. But what is the risk he actually goes to jail? What sounds improbable looks more probable when we do the math.įederal prosecutors rarely lose: In 2021, 94% of defendants charged with a federal felony were convicted. Later this month a fourth is expected, in Georgia, on charges of election tampering. for attempting to subvert the 2020 election. How serious is the threat of prison? As I write this, President Trump has been indicted three times: in New York for tax and reporting violations related to hush money payments in federal court in Miami for mishandling national security documents and obstructing the investigation into his conduct and in federal court in D.C. Incarceration, balanced against a life (post-deal) of golf clubs, sycophants, and porn stars weighs heavily on even the most delusional psyche. Even more compelling? The prospect of survival - avoiding death behind bars. Attorneys general wield the power of possible incarceration. Any sentence to a prison facility is likely a death sentence. President Trump is an obese 77-year-old male. And as the knock-on effects of imprisoning a former president become a reality, a deal will also become the best (or least bad) outcome for the nation. As the political map comes into focus, a plea deal will emerge as the best outcome for Trump. Trump and the prosecutors, I speculate, will settle for a lifetime ban on serving in public office in exchange for the resolution of criminal proceedings against him. I don’t believe this will happen, as a plea deal serves everyone’s interests. Why? A: math.įacing prosecutions in at least three jurisdictions, it’s likely, if he is not reelected, Trump will be tried, convicted, and sent to prison. However, I believe it is increasingly likely Donald Trump withdraws from the race for president as the result of a plea deal.
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